The combination of AI with satellite networks may have significant geopolitical ramifications in a world that may be about to experience a change of power.
India must accelerate its own AI-satcom push and advocate for a worldwide consensus on AI warfare limitations as China and the US compete for low-earth orbit slots.
During a period of COVID gridlock, India opened its space sector to private firms. Indeed, there has been considerable development since then. However, China may be poised for a spectacular space jump.
Beijing informed the UN’s International Telecom Union in the final week of December that it intended to launch more than 200,000 satellites in ten years. Its goal appears to be to blanket the entire world with satellite communications and make SpaceX’s Starlink constellation, which consists of about 10,000 low-Earth orbiters, appear skeletal. China is obviously eager to win other tech races besides artificial intelligence (AI).
AI and satellite communications are twin horizons from the perspective of global geo-rivalry. According to accounts, the Pentagon and the US AI firm Anthropic clashed over restrictions on the use of Anthropic’s Claude AI tools, which some claim were utilized by US forces to overthrow the Venezuelan government.
When combined with satcom, AI can facilitate armed action that might shift the balance of power in one direction or another. Imagine AI-controlled drone swarms equipped with real-time data feeds from all around the world. This could possibly be the reason why Elon Musk’s AI company, xAI, was acquired by SpaceX.
Archrivals China and America are likely to launch a barrage of spacecraft, snatching up nearly every low-Earth orbit before anybody else has a chance. Of course, the world is interested in how this plays out, but a space power like India is particularly interested. Regarding cutting-edge technologies, defense minister Rajnath Singh stated, “We must keep ahead of the curve.”
Is China playing a bluff? Beijing’s proposal is implausible in the absence of a reusable rocket similar to SpaceX’s legendary Falcon 9, which launches satellites into orbit and returns home.
The Chang Zheng 9 plan, however, might be useful in that situation. If all goes according to plan, this spacecraft will not only be prepared for round-trip travel by the early 2030s, but it will also be able to carry 150 tons of cargo into low-Earth orbit at a time—more than six times the capacity of the Falcon 9. That might lend credibility to China’s ambitious proposal, both in terms of scale and price.
Musk has demonstrated that economies of scale now control even space launches, which is why SpaceX’s cost per ton is reportedly lower than Isro’s. Isro is working on vehicle reusability even if its specialty is inexpensive single shots.
We may need to accelerate this effort for the sake of our satcom sovereignty, or self-sufficiency. After all, if satellite constellations start to function as “the nervous system” of AI-enabled warfare, relatively close orbital slots may become limited. Closeness gives data-rich beams that must avoid jammers a signal quality advantage.
It is difficult to overestimate the importance of AI in contemporary warfare, just as it is to overstate the function that these networks perform. In combat, quick reactions are crucial. Combatants have had to recognize a threat, choose a course of action, and then react for the majority of history. If granted autonomy, an AI machine could cut this loop in a split second. Given AI’s fallibility, this can be dangerous even without nuclear triggers. The problem with any weapons race, however, is that moderation may become less effective as the stakes increase and the competition may devolve into a speeding rampage.
Therefore, it is vital that every armed action be subject to human scrutiny, with choices remaining within the discretion of individuals who have demonstrated sound judgment. AI-assisted things should not turn into AI-led ones. We really need to stay up with technological advancements quickly. However, we should also push for an international agreement on AI warfare, which might improve everyone’s safety.
