According to a new scenarios drawing provided by Shell India, India’s energy demand is predicted to overtake China in the 2060s and surpass that of the United States in the 2040s, indicating that the country’s role in the global energy system is expected to rise significantly.
Additionally, the analysis predicts that this decade will see a peak in the proportion of fossil fuels in India’s energy mix. However, if global energy demand doubles over the following two to three decades, total consumption may still rise even though their share later decreases.
The research, “India’s energy transition in a security-focused age,” outlines three possible futures—Archipelagos, Surge, and Horizon—that are impacted by digitalization, geopolitics, and climate demands.
“Over the past ten years, India’s energy demand has increased by around 40% as a result of the country’s tremendous economic and demographic expansion. The nation’s energy consumption will surpass that of China in the 2060s and the United States in the 2040s, expanding its influence in the global energy market, according to a quote.
In order to improve energy security and encourage decarbonization, the paper emphasizes the transition from imported fossil fuels to locally produced renewable energy.
According to the paper, “India’s future energy mix will heavily rely on low-carbon fuels, particularly for hard-to-electrify sectors, with substantial domestic bioenergy potential and supportive policies driving future growth.”
Solar and wind energy have increased from roughly 3% of final electricity consumption in 2015 to over 20% today, and they are predicted to account for at least 59% of electricity generation by 2050 under various scenarios. “This decade marks the top of fossil fuels’ proportion of India’s energy demand, although the rate of reduction after that varies greatly across scenarios.”
However, as India’s energy demand doubles over the next two to three decades, the absolute volumes of fossil fuels continue to rise despite the declining percentage in all scenarios. The share of electricity in total energy use is currently comparable to that of developed economies.
According to projections, natural gas and LNG will be essential to the shift, with demand rising by at least 50% over the next ten years to support industrial expansion, grid resilience, and AI-driven power consumption.
The research emphasizes the significance of enabling carbon removals through geological storage and natural sinks, industrial change, electrifying transportation, and scaling low-carbon fuels like bioenergy and renewable hydrogen.
According to the paper, the scenarios are intended to help businesses and governments manage uncertainty while boosting India’s resilience, competitiveness, and long-term energy security.
“India’s energy demand is rising and supplying it strategically and securely will need strong choices and long-term vision,” said Mallika Ishwaran, chief economist at Shell, in a statement offering her thoughts on the findings.
“Our new Shell Scenarios Sketch, ‘India’s energy transition in a security focused age,’ offers a structured vision of those choices through three scenarios Archipelagos, Surge, and Horizon driven by geopolitics, digitalization, and climate imperatives,” she continued. By charting alternative scenarios, we hope to improve India’s energy resilience in the coming decades and assist businesses and policymakers in navigating unpredictability.”
Accelerating low-carbon electrification, advancing road transport electrification, boosting industrial competitiveness, maintaining transition fuels where needed, and creating investable carbon removal technologies are the five main action areas that the report identifies for the upcoming ten years.
