A fresh on-chain analysis highlights potential weakness in Bitcoin’s current price trend, raising concerns among investors about near-term growth prospects.
A recent analysis of on-chain data suggests that there may not be a resurgence of price growth for Bitcoin in the foreseeable future. It is interesting to note that this theory seems to be consistent with the flagship cryptocurrency’s several efforts at recovery over the last few weeks.
📈 Bitcoin Price History (2019–2026)
- 2019: ~$3,500 – $12,000 (Recovery phase)
- 2020: ~$7,000 – $29,000 (Bull run begins)
- 2021: ~$30,000 – $69,000 (All-time high cycle)
- 2022: ~$16,000 – $48,000 (Bear market)
- 2023: ~$25,000 – $45,000 (Gradual recovery)
- 2024: ~$60,000 – $100,000+ (Strong rally)
- 2025: ~$80,000 – $125,000 (Peak & correction)
- 2026: ~$62,000 – $75,000 (Volatility & consolidation)
On-Chain Data Signals Weak Momentum for Bitcoin
On-chain research company Glassnode explained the reasons for Bitcoin’s recent reversal from what at first seemed to be an expansion move in a post on the social networking platform X on March 20.
This is based on the Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) (24h Moving Average) indicator, which tracks (and compares) the amount of either that holders have realized over a 24-hour period to determine whether the market is mostly realizing gains or losses.
NRPL Indicator Shows Rising Selling Pressure
Glassnode said that until the price of Bitcoin began to decline once again, readings on the NRPL indicator recently peaked at almost $17 million per hour. The flagship cryptocurrency lost its $70,000 footing due to a number of factors, including this tendency.
The analytics company claims that increased profit-taking by Bitcoin investors has continued to absorb positive momentum and transform it into negative pressure. Interestingly, this pattern has recurred many times throughout the current cycle, particularly as Bitcoin tries to rise higher.
📊 Bitcoin Profit-Taking Pressure
- Indicator: NRPL (24h Moving Average)
- Peak Profit: ~$17 million/hour
- Impact: Increased selling pressure
- Trend: Repeated across current cycle
- Outcome: Weak upward momentum
Liquidity Crunch and Weak Demand
Glassnode went on to say that “demand depth” has compressed due to the present level of global uncertainty. The market can no longer handle realization events like the last one, which explains the latest decline below $70,000.
It is interesting to note that this is not the only explanation for Bitcoin’s activities. Investor liquidity repositioning caused a spike in on-chain activity when Bitcoin dropped below the $85,000 support.
Seller Fatigue Driving Short-Term Recovery
However, the declining market liquidity in recent weeks indicates that seller fatigue, rather than robust and steady demand, is driving the BTC price rebound. As a result, anytime sellers join the market, the recovery’s life is shortened.
For example, short-term Bitcoin investors have been locking in greater losses in recent weeks, according to cryptocurrency expert Darkfost. Readings from the Short-Term Holder P&L to Exchanges Sum metric show this.
⚠️ Bitcoin Bearish Signals
- Exchange Inflows: 28,000+ BTC moved
- Investor Type: Short-term holders
- Behavior: Selling at losses
- Market Impact: Increased bearish pressure
- Risk: Panic-driven selling
More than 28,000 BTC have lately been transferred to exchanges, according to Darkfost’s post on X. These investors seem to have reduced their losses. The expert said that these losses grew when the price of Bitcoin began to steadily decrease.
Because further panic-driven sales would probably give the Bitcoin market more adverse momentum, it is reasonable to anticipate more bearish pressure from this investor group.
Bitcoin Price Outlook Remains Uncertain
Therefore, the price of Bitcoin seems to be warning investors rather than providing a positive narrative. As of this writing, the value of Bitcoin is around $70,532, with no change over the previous day.
Frequently Asked Questions
1) What is the NRPL metric for Bitcoin?
It assesses whether investors are experiencing long-term gains or losses. High profit realization often indicates selling pressure, which may put an end to rallies and cause brief market drops.
2) Why is Bitcoin having trouble growing?
Bullish momentum is being constrained by excessive profit-taking, shallow demand, and worldwide uncertainty. Every time Bitcoin tries a sustained breakthrough above resistance levels, these variables result in recurrent price rejections.
3) What part does Glassnode play in this situation?
Glassnode offers analytics on-chain. According to their statistics, there is less liquidity and more profit-taking, indicating that the market does not now have the strength required for a long-term bullish growth phase.
4) Do short-term holders have an impact on the price of Bitcoin?
Indeed, short-term investors are boosting exchange inflows by selling at a loss. This conduct increases bearish pressure and indicates fear-based choices, which usually undermine efforts at market stability and recovery.
5) Will Bitcoin continue to decline?
Although it is uncertain, persistent selling pressure, low demand, and liquidity issues point to sustained volatility, with negative risks persisting until robust purchasing demand reappears to offset market sell-offs.
Conclusion
Due to profit-taking, low liquidity, and erratic demand, Bitcoin’s growth is limited. Rallies may soon evaporate in the absence of substantial buyer support, making the market susceptible to ongoing volatility and short-term negative pressure.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are subject to market risks.
