India relinquished its title as the world’s fastest-growing major industrial economy in November, as factory activity dropped more abruptly than predicted.
The HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index had one of the region’s worst month-over-month falls, falling from 59.2 in October to 56.6, a nine-month low. The decline was sufficient for Thailand to surpass India at the top of the worldwide PMI rankings, despite the country still being firmly in growth territory.
Thailand’s PMI increased to 56.8, its best rating in more than two-and-a-half years, buoyed by rising business morale and forecasts of stronger economic circumstances in the months ahead. The November figures also showed a wider change in global manufacturing: although pockets of resilience appeared in the UK, Australia, and parts of Southeast Asia, activity declined in other Western nations and China.
Across ASEAN, manufacturing improved for a third consecutive month, with the bloc’s PMI rising to 53 — the third-fastest rise in the survey’s history. Malaysia returned to growth for the first time in over three years, while Vietnam and Indonesia reported substantial increases, boosted by improving supply circumstances and confidence over future orders. The Philippines remained an anomaly, sliding to its worst level since 2021 as new orders dropped, despite companies there reported a substantial gain in confidence connected to projected new projects and a bigger client base.
China’s manufacturing sector dipped back below the 50-mark with lower new business flows, although morale rose on prospects of regulatory assistance and new product launches. Japan and South Korea continued in contraction, while both showed greater confidence for the year ahead.
The outlook in the West was equally subdued. The eurozone dipped to a five-month low of 49.6, even as manufacturers reported their best forecasts since June. The US PMI dropped to 52.2, although companies reported the greatest optimism levels in months, citing anticipated investments and government expenditure. The UK, meanwhile, returned to growth for the first time in 14 months, with a PMI of 50.2 led by increasing demand and higher business confidence. Australia unexpectedly saw an increase as well, reaching a three-month high of 51.6.
For India, the decline in business optimism was striking. Sentiment plummeted to its lowest level in over three-and-a-half years, with poll respondents noting worries about increased competition — notably from foreign competitors — even as majority remained optimistic that production would continue to expand over the next 12 months.
Globally, the manufacturing PMI dipped marginally to 50.5. Business expectations climbed to a five-month high, but remained below their long-run average for the twentieth consecutive month. Thailand, Brazil and Colombia were among the most optimistic internationally, with the UK and US also scoring near the top.
