Intro: Bitcoin markets are witnessing renewed volatility as institutional signals, derivatives positioning, and Brazil’s sovereign reserve proposal create fresh momentum expectations.
Following recent volatility and a 30% decline over the previous month, the price of bitcoin is now settling at $68,000. Markets are displaying both prudence and long-term interest as $2.5 billion in Bitcoin options expire today and Brazil reintroduces a daring measure to purchase up to 1 million Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Options Expiry and Market Positioning
According to Glassnode data, open interest in options markets is increasing while Bitcoin is trading between $65,000 and $73,000. Derivatives activity indicates traders are getting ready for bigger price swings despite the sluggish price action.
Volatility and Open Interest Rise Before Options Expiration According to Glassnode, open interest in Bitcoin options has increased once more to 452,000 BTC, getting close to its peak in late Q4 2025. This follows a precipitous decline in positions following the December 26 expiry. The most recent rise indicates that traders are repositioning themselves for movement.
📊 Bitcoin Options Expiry Highlights
- Options Expiry: $2.5 Billion
- Open Interest: 452,000 BTC
- Trading Range: $65,000–$73,000
- Volatility: Implied volatility up 10 points
- Skew: Jumped from 6% to 18%
- Market Signal: Traders hedging downside risks
Rising Volatility Signals
Expectations for volatility are also increasing at the same time. The at-the-money implied volatility for one and three months has increased by about 10 points. Despite the present market calm, this trend indicates that traders are pricing in stronger forward moves.
In just one month, skew—a gauge of option price between puts and calls—went from 6% to 18%. This suggests that there is a high need for downside protection, according to Glassnode. Traders are hedging against future drops rather than wagering on gains.
Brazil Strategic Sovereign Bitcoin Reserve Plan
Brazil’s Congress renewed Bill 4501/2024 on February 13, 2026, proposing the establishment of a Strategic Sovereign Bitcoin Reserve (RESBit). If approved, it would allow Brazil to purchase up to one million Bitcoin over a five-year period. Brazil would therefore have the most Bitcoin of any state in the world.
🇧🇷 Brazil 1M Bitcoin Reserve Plan
- Bill: 4501/2024 (RESBit)
- Proposed Purchase: Up to 1 Million BTC
- Estimated Cost: $68 Billion
- Timeframe: 5 Years
- Oversight: Ministry of Finance & Central Bank
- Objective: Monetary sovereignty & inflation hedge
Policy Framework and Oversight
According to Federal Deputy Luiz Gastão, the proposal calls for spending $68 billion. The reserve would promote monetary sovereignty and economic resiliency. According to the measure, Drex, the digital currency issued by Brazil’s central bank, should likewise accept Bitcoin as collateral.
The measure builds on previous iterations by adding legal protections for transaction privacy, free asset transfer, and self-custody. If approved, it would also eliminate any limitations on transfers to wallets under user control.
Institutional Adoption Expansion
The proposed legislation extends beyond simple Bitcoin transactions. It permits government businesses to purchase and keep Bitcoin, permits public institutions to own Bitcoin-backed spot ETFs in times of emergency, and permits public institutions to amass Bitcoin through taxes paid in Bitcoin.
The Ministry of Finance and the Brazilian central bank will oversee these assets, according to Bill 4501/2024. Congress would receive information on Bitcoin usage, performance, and custody in semi-annual reports. The Internal Revenue Service would have a year to construct the system’s infrastructure.
Global Bitcoin Reserve Trend
According to Deputy Gastão, these steps are required to safeguard the purchasing power of the populace and get the economy ready for the digital revolution. The bill’s original sponsor, Congressman Eros Biondini, previously characterized RESBit as an effort to foster economic innovation and lower the danger of inflation.
Brazil’s action is in line with a growing worldwide trend. Germany, France, and the Philippines are among the other nations investigating Bitcoin reserves. The Philippine Congress, French MPs, and Germany’s AfD party have all suggested national Bitcoin plans to bolster sovereignty and fight inflation.
Bitcoin Price Outlook and Institutional Demand
Bitcoin traders are keeping an eye on how institutional demand may impact price recovery as Brazil’s proposal moves forward. Even if Bitcoin is still below its maximum pain level of $74,000 for options expiration, long-term holders would feel more confident if such nationwide purchasing becomes legal.
The present price of Bitcoin, which is close to $68,000, makes bulls wary. However, traders are setting up for potential gains as Brazil may enter the market as a buyer of up to one million Bitcoin. Sovereign demand, increased implied volatility, and growing open interest might all contribute to Bitcoin’s next move breaking out of its current range.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. Why is Bitcoin volatility increasing?
Volatility is rising due to $2.5 billion options expiry, increasing open interest, and hedging activity in derivatives markets.
2. What is Brazil’s Bitcoin Reserve Bill 4501/2024?
It is a proposal to create a Strategic Sovereign Bitcoin Reserve allowing Brazil to buy up to 1 million BTC over five years.
3. How much could Brazil spend on Bitcoin?
The proposal estimates spending up to $68 billion to build the reserve.
4. How does options skew affect Bitcoin price?
A rising skew indicates stronger demand for downside protection, signaling cautious market sentiment.
5. Can sovereign demand push Bitcoin higher?
If approved, large-scale sovereign buying could significantly influence long-term price momentum.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are subject to market risks.
