With a new Prime Minister, India’s two neighbors, China and Japan, will interact in a reevaluated manner. An expert outlines the things to be aware of.
China and Japan are two significant geopolitical and economic actors in India’s neighborhood. Since US President Donald Trump’s unconventional approaches have upended global norms, India’s domestic connections have become more important. For New Delhi, it is important to monitor the election of a new leader by Japan’s leading political party and China’s response to her.
On October 4, the governing Liberal Democratic Party of Japan declared the outcome of their presidential election. Sanae Takaichi became the first female leader of the conservative party that has traditionally controlled Japanese politics after defeating her closest opponent, Shinjiro Koizumi. By October 15, she will be ready to take over as prime minister.
What is China’s response?
Beijing’s reaction to Takaichi’s victory was unusually swift, given that China is Japan’s vigilant neighbor and has a significant interest in the country’s political and economic stability. Although this was a domestic issue for Japan, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry expressed optimism that she would adopt a proactive and sensible approach toward China.
However, many Chinese academics and the official media questioned if Takaichi could end the “curse” of Shinzo Abe in Japanese politics, which has been a new prime minister every year. Takaichi’s ultra-conservative political stance and inexperience in international affairs were among the reasons for their lack of trust.
Sanae Takaichi is who?
Takaichi, a 64-year-old Lower House legislator with more than 30 years of parliamentary experience, was once the minister of economic security. She was a protégé of the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe and held a number of important positions in the Cabinet as well as inside the party, including head of the general affairs council and chief of policy.
She served as Japan’s minister of economic security from 2022 until 2024. In addition, she is the longest-serving minister of internal affairs, having held the position for many terms.
Notably, Takaichi has long been the face of the conservative part of the LDP, supporting policies like high government expenditure, a tough stance toward China, and a substantial defense budget.
Japan’s “iron woman,” Takaichi, is a fan of former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
Although most political analysts in Japan concur that Takaichi’s first task will be to bring the divided LDP together, she will also need to quickly catch up on foreign policy because the US and China are two of Japan’s most significant allies, the former strategically, the latter economically, and their bilateral relations are currently unusually complex.
She will likely meet with Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting later this month in South Korea. Chinese academics have pointed out that, despite her extreme conservatism toward Beijing, Takaichi did refer to China as a “important neighbor” throughout her campaign.
What caused Takaichi to soften her stance against China during the most recent campaign?
Many Chinese academics point to Takaichi’s yearly pilgrimage to the Yasukuni Shrine as proof of her “hawkish” views. Tokyo’s Chiyoda is home to the Shinto shrine known as Yasukuni Shrine. The Boshin War of 1868–1869, the two Sino-Japanese Wars (1894–1895 and 1937–1945, respectively), and the First Indochina War (1946–1954) all saw the death of soldiers serving Japan. Emperor Meiji established it in June 1869. On August 15, Takaichi made his most recent trip to the shrine.
What prevented her from emphasizing her anti-China stance during the LDP leadership race? Within hours after her win, Professor Lian Degui, head of the Shanghai International Studies University’s Centre for Japanese Studies, wrote a signed commentary explaining that the new leader is under pressure to “manage Japan’s ties with China effectively.”
Why are people in China comparing her to Liz Truss on social media?
Following her victory, the initial joke on China’s active social media and digital news platforms was that, like former British Prime Minister Truss, Sanae Takaichi would make political history in Japan.
From September to October 2022, Liz Truss served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. She was the shortest-serving prime minister in British history when she resigned on her fiftieth day in office due to a cabinet crisis. The genuine contradiction of her [Takaichi’s] possible premiership, according to China Daily, “is that the ideological purity that galvanized the conservative LDP base now undermines her capacity to rule.”
Others, however, think Takaichi can serve out her time. In the aforementioned citation, Professor Lian Degui provided two reasons for this confidence.
China and Japan have maintained a “politically frigid, economically hot” relationship for a long time. Takaichi would demonstrate Abe-like pragmatism and improve business ties with China if she is indeed a protégé of Shinzo Abe, who was politically conservative himself.
Second, China is presently a major contributor to Japan’s economy. The Japanese economy is still under pressure from the US. Japan exports more than 95% of its products. Japan’s economy would suffer if Sino-Japanese economic ties are strained. As prime minister, Sanae Takaichi will thus have to decide between her political rhetoric and the harsh reality of the economy.