The article below explains why Reliance Industries shares rose despite a sharp fall in the Indian stock market. Rising crude oil prices due to the escalating US-Iran conflict are expected to boost refining and petrochemical margins for the company.
The share price of Reliance Industries increased on Friday despite significant pressure on the Indian stock market as a whole due to the intensifying US-Iranian conflict in the Middle East. On the BSE, Reliance Industries shares increased by as much as 0.62% to ₹1,400.50 per.
Reliance Industries Shares Rise Despite Market Selloff
Even though the benchmark BSE Sensex fell more than 900 points and the Nifty 50 fell 1%, Reliance’s share price increased today despite a severe selloff in stocks. Concerns over the escalating US-Iran confrontation, which has driven crude oil prices considerably higher and increased fears of supply disruptions, have been a major factor in the weakening in the world’s financial markets.
Concerns over energy security and inflation have increased as a result of the successful blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy corridor that supplies almost 20% of the world’s oil and LNG.
📊 Reliance Share Price Highlights
- Current Price: Around ₹1,400 per share
- Daily Move: Up about 0.62% on BSE
- Market Trend: Sensex down 900+ points
- Main Driver: Rising crude oil prices
- Investor View: Strong refining and petrochemical outlook
- Brokerage Rating: “Buy” recommendation maintained
Analysts See Strong Tailwinds for O2C Business
Analysts, however, think that the present climate may help Reliance Industries’ oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business’s earnings projection.
Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services claim that delays in supply chain normalization and supply interruptions in the world’s oil markets might keep product cracks high, sustaining Reliance Industries’ petrochemical and refining margins.
Brokerage Maintains Buy Recommendation
With a target price of ₹1,750 per share, Motilal Oswal has reaffirmed his “Buy” recommendation for Reliance Industries shares, suggesting a nearly 26% increase from Thursday’s closing price.
Tightening product balances have resulted in a substantial increase in refining margins. Gasoil, gasoline, and jet fuel cracks have thus far averaged $42, $16, and $58 a barrel in March 2026, respectively, which is 147%, 40%, and 124% more than their long-term averages. Increased refining margins have the potential to significantly increase O2C segment profitability.
⛽ Refining Margin Surge
- Gasoil Crack: $42 per barrel (147% above average)
- Gasoline Crack: $16 per barrel (40% higher)
- Jet Fuel Crack: $58 per barrel (124% higher)
- Impact: Strong boost to O2C profitability
- EBITDA Sensitivity: +2.5% for every $1 GRM increase
- Market Trigger: Global oil supply disruptions
Impact of Rising Crude Prices on Earnings
According to estimates, Reliance Industries’ consolidated EBITDA will improve by about 2.5% for every $1 increase in gross refining margin (GRM) per barrel.
Due to supply disruptions and growing input costs, petrochemical prices have also increased. In March, naphtha prices jumped by over 34% while those of polyethylene (PE) and paraxylene (PX) grew by 10–15% month-over-month (MoM).
Regional Supply Disruptions Affect Petrochemical Producers
Due to shortages of steam crackers that depend on the Middle East for more than 60% of their naphtha feedstock, disruptions in the region have led a number of Asian refiners and petrochemical manufacturers to reduce operating rates and declare force majeure.
Reliance Industries’ diverse raw material mix, which consists of about 30% ethane, 40% refinery off-gases, and only about 30% crude-linked naphtha, protects it against growing crude-linked feedstock costs. According to Motilal Oswal, this might support petrochemical spreads even as the price of crude oil rises.
Long-Term Earnings Potential for O2C Segment
The brokerage firm projects that Reliance Industries’ O2C EBITDA could increase by around ₹17,000 crore if gasoil, gasoline, and jet fuel cracks stay roughly $15, $5, and $15 per barrel above historical averages during the first half of FY27.
However, the brokerage warned that the reinstatement of fuel export charges, akin to the windfall tax levied in July 2022, could limit the upside to O2C earnings and curb refining margins.
Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation of Reliance
Motilal Oswal values the O2C and exploration & production divisions at 7.5x and 5.0x FY28E EV/EBITDA, respectively, using a sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) valuation approach. This results in an enterprise value of ₹5.7 lakh crore for the standalone business.
It values Jio Platforms’ stock at ₹590 per share and Reliance Retail Ventures’ at ₹560 per share. The new energy company is worth ₹174 per share according to the brokerage, while JioStar and Reliance Consumer Products are worth ₹26 and ₹30 per share, respectively.
Technical Outlook for Reliance Share Price
Ruchit Jain, Head of Equity Technical Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., claims that the share price of Reliance Industries is undergoing a consolidation period and that a support base has developed near the ₹1,300 level.
But he thinks that the swing high at ₹1,490 and the 50 DEMA at ₹1,435 are the immediate barriers that must be overcome for a trending upward move.
Recent Stock Performance
The share price of Reliance Industries has plummeted 11% year-to-date (YTD) and by 2% in only one month. In just one year, the stock has increased by 12%, and in three years, it has increased by 32%. The share price of Reliance has returned 41% during the last five years. Reliance shares were trading at ₹1,392.95 each on the BSE at 11:10 AM, up 0.08%.
Frequently Asked Questions
1) Despite a market selloff, why did Reliance Industries shares increase?
The US-Iran dispute caused crude oil prices to rise, which helped Reliance’s refining and petrochemical (O2C) sector.
2) What effects does the US-Iran war have on Reliance’s operations?
Refining margins and petrochemical profitability may rise as a result of the conflict’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz oil supplies, which raises the price of crude and other products globally.
3) What are Reliance’s current refining margin trends?
Strong refining tailwinds are seen in the March 2026 cracks for gasoil, gasoline, and jet fuel, which are 147%, 40%, and 124% higher than long-term averages.
4) Does Reliance have protection against growing crude prices?
Indeed. Its petrochemical feedstock mix, which consists of 30% oil-linked naphtha, 40% refinery off-gases, and 30% ethane, reduces sensitivity to surges in crude prices.
5) What are Reliance shares’ short-term technical levels?
Resistances to keep an eye on are ₹1,435 (50 DEMA) and ₹1,490 (swing high), with support at ₹1,300. Overcoming these can start an upward trend.
Conclusion
In the face of global supply disruptions, Reliance Industries stands to gain from rising oil and product prices. Technical support points to possible upside, while strong refining margins, robust petrochemical spreads, and a diverse raw material composition offer strong tailwinds. Despite overall market weakness, analysts maintain a “Buy” recommendation with a ₹1,750 target, noting earnings growth potential.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
