Gold Prices Likely to Stay Low Amid Jackson Hole and US-Russia Talks

While rising confidence in a 25 basis point rate drop helped markets, traders remained careful ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting and mixed US data.

US Economic Signals Mixed

Retail sales in July, a small increase in the US CPI, and a higher-than-expected PPI all showed that US consumers are still strong. Meanwhile, as longer-term price rise forecasts increased in August, US consumer confidence went down for the first time in four months. This mixed data shows that the US economy is slowing, which makes the Fed’s rate-cut plan more difficult.

Growing uncertainty about the Fed’s independence contributed to the uncertainty, as the dollar finished the week below the 98 level. Trump may sue Fed Chair Powell, the White House said, pointing to an expensive headquarters renovation as the reason for his dismissal. Powell has come under fire from Trump on several occasions for ignoring pleas to lower interest rates.

 

 

Markets React to Tariffs

Trump’s announcement on Friday that he would be putting tariffs on steel and semiconductors in the next weeks also caused pressure on US markets. All three of the major indexes, however, ended the week higher because traders are still almost in agreement that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points next month.

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At the same time, COMEX Gold prices fell to a two-week low of $3,375.50 per troy ounce as chances for big Fed rate cuts went down after the stronger PPI reading and a drop in unemployment claims. The US PPI increased 3.3%, the fastest yearly rate since February 2025, showing that recent jumps in wholesale prices for food and services may affect core PCE inflation in the months ahead. In addition, since Trump ruled out putting taxes on gold bars, COMEX gold prices have dropped more sharply than spot prices.

 

 

Commodities Face Pressure

Although the price action stayed above the rising trend line support, MCX GOLD futures saw losses on the daily chart for the fifth straight session last week. A continued fall below the immediate support, which is Rs 99,500 per 10 grams, would also break the rising trend line, increasing the chance of a further drop to Rs 98,600. On the other hand, Rs 1,00,650 is the level of resistance, and Rs 1,01,200 is the next level.

Due to pressure from the US Department of Energy, the IEA, and a negative EIA inventory report, WTI crude oil prices fell below $62 per barrel, the lowest level since early June. Unlike OPEC’s more positive forecast, which predicts demand rising in 2026 due to expected economic growth in major oil-consuming areas, the IEA expects a bigger surplus, which matches the EIA. However, with markets being careful ahead of the Trump-Putin summit and the US President warning of “serious consequences” if Putin refuses to agree to a Peace agreement in Ukraine.

Metals Trading Sees Volatility

As ongoing macroeconomic problems balanced out excitement from positive trade news, base metals closed the week on a lower note. Before the US-China tariff deadline, prices first went down, but when both countries decided to extend their trade Peace agreement by ninety days, delaying planned tariff increases until November 10, mood improved. The US dollar briefly went over the 99 level before falling, however, limiting momentum as investors waited for Chinese and US economic data for more guidance. The metal that stood out the most was copper, which closed slightly higher at $9,773.50/ton.

Markets Await Policy Signals

Although both leaders described the talks in Alaska as productive and hinted at a possible follow-up meeting in Moscow, Friday’s highly expected summit between Trump and Putin ended without a result. Risk sentiment may improve if there are no new economic restrictions and signs of a diplomatic breakthrough.

As markets watch for signs of any change in policy, such as the one he supported last year when he hinted at the start of interest rate cuts.
As investors become more confident that US interest-rate cuts will resume next month, they will also be closely watching the minutes of the FOMC’s July meeting. In terms of numbers, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Flash PMI figures will also be watched for early signs of economic activity