Above all, the Senate’s inability to approve budget proposals on Friday means the shutdown will begin its sixth day on Monday, with no votes anticipated over the weekend.
Data Blackout Clouds Outlook
The Fed’s outlook for monetary policy is clouded by the continued data blackout, which includes the official employment report’s non-release.
Despite the US government shutdown, which concluded on October 3, Wall Street and commodities had a successful week after President Trump and legislative leaders were unable to come to a deal on short-term financing.
As the first shutdown in over seven years resulted from the impasse over healthcare subsidies, the dollar continued to be under pressure. ADP revealed an unexpected 32,000 loss in private payrolls, Challenger data revealed planned hiring at its lowest year-to-date level since 2009, and US services PMI halted in September amid a steep fall in new orders, all of which sparked worries about slowing growth.
Markets Rally on Fed Hopes
Equity indexes reached all-time highs despite the dropping labor market as investors hoped the cooling labor market would lead to further Fed easing. With the likelihood of another rate drop in December increasing, market players now mostly anticipate one this month. Owing to safe-haven demand and a better industrial outlook, silver hit a 14-year high at $48.30 per troy ounce, while spot gold surged beyond $3,890 per troy ounce for the first time owing to this dovish attitude and the protracted shutdown.
MCX Silver futures rose to a new high of Rs 1,45,599 per kg on the weekly chart, which was the seventh consecutive week with a positive finish. The price is above the 20 EMA and the Supertrend (7,3), indicating a positive outlook. With immediate resistance predicted at Rs 1,49,000 and then Rs 1,50,000, the rise is probably going to continue into next week. On the downside, Rs 1,42,000 and Rs 1,40,000 are the first points of support.
Metals Shine, Oil Slumps
Amid Fed rate drop optimism and supply worries after Freeport’s declaration of force majeure at its Grasberg mine, base metals also saw a significant rally, with copper topping the pack for the second week, rising more than 5% to $10,765 per tonne, the highest since May 2024. Aluminum climbed beyond $2,900 a tonne, while zinc reached 10-month highs due to declining stockpiles. China reduced its 2025–2026 non-ferrous metals production growth goal from 5% to only 1.5%, which further bolstered bullish sentiment.
WTI crude oil, on the other hand, fell to a four-month low of $60.4 per barrel due to signals of declining US demand and growing worries about oversupply ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on October 5. Soft Chinese industrial data and an unexpected rise of 1.8 million barrels in US stocks added to the strain. Oil prices may face more pressure if OPEC+ moves on with much bigger production increases of 5,00,000 bpd beginning in November, as opposed to the modest 1,37,000 bpd rise in October. But geopolitical uncertainties associated with Trump’s deadline for a peace proposal in Gaza on Sunday and the G7’s stricter penalties on Russian oil might increase volatility.
Global Banks in Focus
There will be talks this week by important representatives of the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England in addition to early data on inflation expectations and consumer mood in the US.
Above all, the Senate’s inability to approve budget proposals on Friday means the shutdown will begin its sixth day on Monday, with no votes anticipated over the weekend. The Fed’s outlook for monetary policy is clouded by the continued data blackout, which includes the official employment report’s non-release. Even if several Fed officials have cautioned against making any further rate reduction, investors will be keenly watching Chair Jerome Powell’s and other FOMC members’ future statements because they may cause them to reevaluate the rate path in the absence of new economic data.