During the Christmas week, the mood of the market was generally positive, with both industrial and precious metals showing remarkable gains and stocks reaching all-time highs. The week ended with double-digit gains as copper and silver reached new all-time highs, concluding an incredible rise.
US Dollar and Market Sentiment
Due to market speculation that President Trump might favor appointing a more dovish Federal Reserve Chair, the US dollar declined slightly and remained close to the 98 level. All three of the main US market indices reached all-time highs as a result of this forecast, which was seen as pessimistic for the US dollar, and expectations of a classic Santa Claus rally.
Metals Outperform
But without a doubt, metals were the best performers. Driven by growing geopolitical threats, a declining US currency, and predictions of future softer monetary policy, gold and silver rose to fresh all-time highs, extending a historic year-end rally and heading for their greatest year since 1979.
Weekly Performance of Gold and Silver
Gold and silver saw significant weekly gains of almost 3.8% and more than 14%, respectively, on COMEX. Silver futures reached about $79.70 per ounce, the biggest dollar increase for silver in a single week, while gold futures reached a record high of $4,581.30 per ounce.
Silver’s Parabolic Climb
Following October’s extraordinary short squeeze, speculative inflows and ongoing supply disruptions across major trading hubs have strengthened silver’s parabolic climb. Expectations of possible export restrictions starting in 2026 and SHFE backwardation have reinforced the structural optimistic picture.
MCX Gold Weekly Close
Last week, MCX Gold futures saw its highest-ever weekly close at Rs 1,39,940 per 10 grams, which was a positive weekly closing for the seventh straight week. The fact that prices are still trading above the Supertrend (7,3) suggests that the short-term bullish trend is still present. Although prices may encounter first resistance around Rs 1,42,000 and then Rs 1,44,000, we anticipate that the bullish momentum will continue into the upcoming week. On the downside, Rs 1,36,400 is the immediate support, and Rs 1,32,900 is the next support.
Copper Record Highs
Copper followed suit, trading almost 13% higher at a record Rs 1,260 per kg and achieving double-digit gains on the MCX. While COMEX futures rose toward $5.90 per pound, LME copper prices broke above $12,200 per tonne globally. Due to preemptive hoarding in COMEX warehouses ahead of a possible policy revision and forecasts of a tighter global market heading into 2026 despite mine disruptions, copper also reached new records on the Shanghai exchange.
Supply Restrictions and Metals Outlook
Furthermore, starting in 2026, Chinese officials have indicated that new copper and alumina projects will be subject to stricter control, which will increase expectations for ongoing supply restraint. Zinc and aluminum also saw increases toward the conclusion of the week, rising by about 3% and 5%, respectively.
WTI Crude Oil Movements
As global tensions stoked worries about possible supply interruptions, WTI crude oil climbed above $58 per barrel and was initially expected to see weekly increases. After the US intercepted a supertanker flying the Panamanian flag that was connected to Venezuela, the risks increased. Several loaded ships are currently waiting offshore after Trump declared a ban on all ships going to and from the nation.
Geopolitical Developments
Additionally, traders evaluated the effects of a US military action against a militant organization in Nigeria. But as caution crept in ahead of Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky‘s planned meeting on Sunday (December 28) to discuss a proposed 20-point framework aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war, oil prices plummeted more than 2% on Friday, erasing earlier gains.
Future Market Outlook
In the future, as investors navigate a comparatively light economic calendar, sparse holiday trading is expected to magnify short-term market movements. In addition to the FOMC meeting minutes and weekly US jobless claims, investors will be watching President Trump’s anticipated choice for the next Fed Chair, which might have an impact on the direction of monetary policy.
Commodities Forecast
The overall forecast for commodities seems very positive as 2025 comes to a close. Expectations have been adjusted, especially for copper and silver, due to structural supply restrictions, tariff-driven trade distortions, and persistent demand from AI infrastructure and renewable energy technologies. In the meanwhile, geopolitical threats, trade disputes, and anticipations of additional interest rate reductions in the upcoming year support gold’s continued prominence as a hedge.
