How NATO and the EU Can Deter US Seizure of Greenland

The Trump administration has said time and time again that the United States should take over Greenland, using a “national security stance” as justification and threatening to “do something” about the region “whether they like it or not,” according to The Guardian.

US Interests and NATO Challenges in Greenland

The EU and NATO are in a difficult situation as a result. The Arctic island is protected by the alliance’s security guarantees since Denmark is a member, but Greenland, a fully autonomous portion of Denmark, is not, according to the Telegraph.

Although European leaders have vehemently defended Greenland’s and Denmark’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and right to make decisions that affect them, there is still no clear plan on how to deter Trump or deal with him should he act. These are a few choices.

Diplomatic Efforts and US Security Concerns

Although Greenland’s envoy, Jacob Isbosethsen, and Denmark’s ambassador, Jesper Møller Sørensen, have already started lobbying US legislators, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with the foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland on Wednesday.

In order to partially satisfy US security concerns, diplomatic efforts will first highlight the fact that a 1951 US-Danish defense pact that was revised in 2004 already permits a significant increase in the US military’s presence on the island, including the construction of additional facilities.

They will also emphasize that, in the words of Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, a US strike on Greenland—basically, one member turning against another—would spell “the end of NATO.” This is a clear warning to Republicans outside of Trump’s Maga circle.

NATO’s Strategy and Arctic Military Plans

In order to allay US security worries, NATO ambassadors allegedly decided last week in Brussels that the transatlantic alliance should expand military expenditures in the Arctic, deploy more equipment, and conduct more and bigger exercises.

Trump’s assertions that Greenland “is full with Chinese and Russian ships everywhere” are obviously overstated, but diplomats think that the least painful way out of the situation would be for the West to work together to bolster Greenland’s external defense.

According to EU officials, this might be based after Eastern Sentry, which extended the idea to more widely defend Europe’s eastern flank against drones and other threats, and Baltic Sentry, a NATO mission that was started last year to safeguard infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.

EU Economic and Security Response

The EU, a market of 450 million people, theoretically has significant economic sway over the US and might take punitive actions like blocking European sales of US government bonds or shutting US military installations in Europe.

The most popular penalty is the EU’s “trade bazooka,” an anti-coercive tool that allows the European Commission to impose tariffs, prohibit American products and services from entering the EU market, deny them intellectual property rights, and prevent their investments.

However, it would need the national governments of the bloc to consent to use it, which they have been reluctant to do even in the face of Trump’s promised trade penalties since they are keen to keep the US on board on the Ukraine problem and do not want to cause economic harm to the union. According to former top UN official Jean-Marie Guéhenno, Europe is completely dependent on American technological corporations.

Financial Dependency and Greenland’s Future

“Europe remains at the mercy of American generosity, whether it is data protection, artificial intelligence, or software upgrades, even military,” he said. Furthermore, for any threat of economic penalties to be successful, Trump would need to think it was genuine, which is obviously not the case at this point.

Denmark’s yearly subsidies, which last year totaled over 4 billion kroner (about 530 million euros) and accounted for almost half of the large territory’s public expenditure budget and 20% of its GDP, are crucial to Greenland’s economy.

EU Funding and Greenland’s Independence

The EU may match Trump’s pledges to “spend billions” in an attempt to keep the island—which is predicted to vote in favor of independence from Denmark at some point in the near future—out of the US economic clutches.

According to a September draft Commission proposal, the island may seek for up to €44 million in EU funding for the EU’s related distant territories, and the EU could boost its obligations to Greenland to equal the yearly Danish payout.

After gaining independence, Greenlanders may be hesitant to give up their Nordic-style social security system and cautious about opening themselves up to predatory American firms, even if Washington may have billions more to offer than Brussels.

European Rapid Deployment and Deterrence

The aforementioned tasks would need time. Furthermore, the US president told the New York Times that American “ownership” of the island was “psychologically vital for success,” but it is unclear if treaties or heightened security in the Arctic will satisfy Trump’s aspirations for Greenland.

Moreno Bertoldi and Marco Buti claimed that EU governments should “proactively safeguard Greenland against American expansionism” in a letter to the powerful Bruegel group. They also said, “The EU has a quick deployment capability and should be engaged.”

They agreed with Copenhagen and Nuuk that the island need to have European troops stationed there “as a symbol of Europe’s commitment to the territorial integrity of Greenland.”The sight of the US capturing the soldiers of its closest friends would undermine US credibility, harm US image abroad, and have a significant impact on American public and Congress, they said, even if there would be no need for a military conflict. This would make US annexation much more difficult, but it would not prevent it.

While France’s Foreign Minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, rejected the idea of sending a French military deployment last year, a German government official said last week that Berlin was developing a strategy “encompassing European deterrence” in case the US attempted to seize Greenland.

The mechanism for the quick deployment of up to 5,000 soldiers from various member states under EU command in response to emergencies outside the union is known as the EU’s rapid deployment capabilities. Experts and some politicians think that this could alter US calculations. “No one believes that a war between the US and the EU is desirable or winnable,” said German Green MEP Sergey Lagodinsky. “But a US military action against the EU would have devastating consequences for defense cooperation, markets, and global trust in the US,” he continued.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Why does the US want to take over Greenland?

The Trump administration views Greenland as strategically important for national security and Arctic defense. They have claimed that controlling the island is ‘psychologically vital’ for US success.

2. Is Greenland protected under NATO?

Greenland is part of Denmark, which is a NATO member. However, Greenland itself is fully autonomous and not directly covered by NATO guarantees.

3. How is the EU responding to US threats?

The EU is exploring diplomatic, economic, and military measures, including increased Arctic security spending, rapid deployment capabilities, and potential trade countermeasures.

4. What financial support does Greenland receive?

Denmark subsidizes Greenland with over 4 billion kroner annually, and the EU may match or increase its contributions to prevent US economic influence.

5. Could US annex Greenland lead to war?

Experts agree a military conflict is highly undesirable. European troop deployment and diplomatic pressure are intended to deter US annexation without actual war.