The muted mood throughout the world after the US-China trade dispute suggests some short-term weakening. Because a significant decline below this level might force bears back into the street, analysts have set the Nifty 50’s critical support around 25,000–24,900.
The Nifty 50 index may see some pullback after a robust two-week surge before advancing into 25,400–25,450, the critical area for its future upward trajectory. Even the muted mood throughout the world after the US-China trade conflict suggests some short-term fragility. Bears may return to the streets if the essential support falls sharply below the 25,000–24,900 mark. Although the Bank Nifty is now doing better than the benchmark Nifty 50, it might find support around 56,000–57,000. Experts say that although a steep decline is possible below this level, maintaining above it may eventually push the index beyond 57,000 and a record high.
The Bank Nifty surged 418 points to 56,610 on October 10th, while the Nifty 50 surged 104 points to 25,285. Bulls dominated the market breadth, with over 1,708 shares rising on the NSE compared to 1,109 decreasing shares.
Nifty Prospects and Approach
Osho Krishan, Angel One’s Chief Manager of Technical and Derivative Research
The past week saw a 1.57 percent increase in the Nifty 50 index. Technically speaking, the index has clearly risen above its 20 DEMA, suggesting stability and a promising short-term outlook. Additionally, the index is currently above the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline due to weekly events, which increases the bullish quotient.
Regarding levels, the 25,150–25,100 range offers a strong base that can efficiently absorb any little variations. We anticipate that the critical support level of 25,000 will serve as a sacred support zone.
The recent swing high of 25,450, which coincides with a sloping trendline that borders the lifetime high (26,277) and this year’s high (25,669), is, nonetheless, within reach with further momentum. Any significant breakthrough above this area is probably going to provide new momentum and open the door for the short-term recovery of the calendar year high of 25,669 as well.
Resistance of the Key: 25,450, 25,670
Crucial Assistance: 25,150, 25,000
Using a stop-loss of 24,950 and a book-profit target of 25,500, the strategy is to purchase Nifty Futures on falls around 25,150.
Senior Vice President of Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities, Rajesh Palviya
The Nifty 50 closed above the high of the previous week, forming a lengthy bullish candle with a higher high–low structure on the weekly chart. This is a certain indication of growing positive momentum. A downward-sloping trendline from the all-time high is located at 25,500, which is currently the index’s critical resistance.
A strong closing above this level would pave the way for the all-time high of 26,277. Major support is located at 24,350, with immediate support around 25,058 (20-day SMA). While a break below 25,150 would lead to dips around 25,000–24,800, a sustained advance over 25,500 might push the index beyond 25,700–26,000.
With a favorable outlook, the Nifty is anticipated to trade between 26,000 to 24,800 for the week. There is a bullish bias when the weekly strength indicator, RSI, is above its corresponding reference lines.
Resistance of the Key: 25,350, 25,450
Crucial Assistance: 25,100, 24,900
Strategy: Target 25,350–25,400 by purchasing Nifty Futures at 25,100 with a stop-loss of 24,950.
Lakshmishree Investments’ Head of Research, Anshul Jain
The index resumed its upward movement on Thursday after a short two-session lull on the daily chart, indicating a follow-through surge on Friday. In the next sessions, we anticipate that the current leg will attempt the swing high of 25,448 due to this momentum.
The fact that FII positioning is still quite short feeds the possibility of a rebound due to short-covering. This ought to provide purchasers a strong buffer against any intraday declines.
If there are indications of a bullish reversal, the 10- and 20-day EMA zone around 25,000–25,050 provides quick support on the downside and should be considered a buy-on-dip opportunity. With the daily EMAs now favorably aligned, the bulls are clearly back in charge and driving the current bullish trend.
Resistance of the Key: 25,448, 25,600
Crucial Assistance: 25,050, 25,000
Strategy: Target 25,448 by purchasing Nifty Futures on declines to 25,050–25,000, with a stop-loss of 24,950.
Bank Nifty: Prospects and Placement
Osho Krishan, Angel One’s Chief Manager of Technical and Derivative Research
The Bank Nifty gained 1.84 percent at the end of a successful trading week. As prices successfully broke above the critical supply zone of 56,100–55,800 last week, the rate-sensitive index’s technical structure shifted strongly in favor of buyers. A bullish crossing of the 20 DEMA above the 50 DEMA further supports this bullish momentum, suggesting that momentum is still solidly in the bulls’ favor, at least for the near future.
The development of a runaway gap above the resistance band further emphasizes how well buyers now control price activity. Prices are anticipated to quickly retest the recent swing highs in the vicinity of the 57,600 zone in the future, where it may be profitable to use a buying strategy on falls towards support levels.
As for levels, the sacrosanct support is in the 55,700–55,500 range, while the immediate support is in the 56,300–56,100 area. With significant resistance expected around the 56,900–57,300 range, the index is now moving closer to the 78.6% retracement of the last downswing on the upside.
The main resistances are 56,900 and 57,300.
Crucial Assistance: 56,300, 55,700
Strategy: Purchase Bank Nifty Futures around 56,300 with a 55,700 stop-loss in order to potentially reach 57,000–57,300.
Senior Vice President of Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities, Rajesh Palviya
The Bank Nifty created a robust bullish candle on the weekly chart, closing above the 20-week SMA (55,695) and having a higher high-low than the week before. Strong follow-up purchases after the breach of the downward-sloping trendline have sent the index to its highest level ever, 57,628.
Major supports are at 54,300, while key support levels are at 55,600. A break below 56,350 might result in a fall below 56,000–55,600, while a sustained rise over 57,000 could lead to purchasing above 57,400–57,700.
We anticipate that Bank Nifty will trade with a positive tilt throughout the week, in the range of 57,700 to 55,600. The Stochastic indicator is still on a bullish track, and the weekly RSI has crossed above its reference line, confirming a strong momentum change.
Important Resistance: 57,000, 56,800
Crucial Assistance: 56,300, 56,150
Strategy: Target 56,700–56,850 by purchasing Bank Nifty Futures around 56,400 with a stop-loss of 56,200.
Lakshmishree Investments’ Head of Research, Anshul Jain
With robust volumes, the Bank Nifty broke above the weekly swing high of 56,156 and formed a bullish candle with a weekly gap, confirming bullish dominance and finishing the week on a strong bullish note. This breach over 56,156 has essentially set the stage for a short-term climb towards 57,500.
Since the 56,156 level is now moving from resistance to strong support, any decline into this area should be seen as a buying opportunity. The 10- and 20-day EMAs, as well as the monthly VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), are all grouped in the 55,900–56,156 region, which supports this bullish setup and solidifies it as a demand zone.
With volume, momentum, and structure all in line, the Bank Nifty is ready to continue its upward trajectory, with aggressive buying expected to occur on dips.
The main resistances are 57,500 and 58,100
Crucial Assistance: 56,300, 56,156
Strategy: Target 57,500–58,100 by purchasing Bank Nifty Futures on falls to 56,156–56,000, with a stop-loss below 56,000.