On September 20, 2025, Estonia reported an unprecedented incursion by three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets, which entered its airspace for 12 minutes near Vaindloo Island, about 100 km from Tallinn.
Estonian authorities described the violation as “unprecedentedly brazen,” noting that Russia had already breached their airspace four times earlier this year. The jets had no flight plans, their transponders were off, and they did not communicate with air traffic control. Italian F-35s stationed in Estonia eventually forced the aircraft to withdraw.
The incident follows a recent surge in Russian military provocations, including over 20 drones entering Polish airspace on September 9-10. Russia denies violating Estonian airspace, claiming the jets remained over neutral Baltic Sea waters en route from mainland Russia to Kaliningrad. Independent checks are cited by Moscow as confirming no border violations.
Estonia summoned Russia’s top diplomat to lodge a formal protest and plans to request NATO consultations under Article 4, which calls for discussions whenever a member’s security is perceived to be threatened. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna and Prime Minister Kristen Michal emphasized the incursion was a deliberate provocation and indicated plans to seek additional air defense support from NATO allies.
NATO described Russia’s actions as “reckless,” highlighting the alliance’s ability to respond. Swedish military released photos of the Russian jets over the Baltic Sea, and neighboring Lithuania urged urgent deployment of air defenses to frontline states. Ukraine condemned the violation, calling for strong, coordinated action against Russia.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who had not yet been briefed at the time, described the incident as potentially “big trouble” and expressed concern over the provocation. The episode occurs just after the conclusion of Russia-Belarus joint military exercises, “Zapad-2025,” which included rehearsals for launching nuclear weapons.
Experts suggest the violation may serve as a test of NATO’s readiness, though some note coincidences cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, Estonia and NATO see it as part of broader Russian attempts to challenge alliance cohesion amid ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and the Ukraine conflict.