Well-timed wagers have preceded some of U.S. President Donald Trump’s significant policy moves, prompting some experts to wonder if knowledge had somehow leaked beforehand.
Market Movements Before Major Policy Announcements
Shortly before Trump declared a five-day postponement of attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, an unidentified trader or traders wagered $500 million on Brent and WTI crude futures in a one-minute period, causing oil prices to plummet 15%, according to exchange data and Reuters calculations.
5,100 lots exchanged hands between 1049 and 1050 GMT, with selling accounting for the majority of the activity, according to LSEG statistics. Over 13,000 lots, or 13 million barrels, traded in 60 seconds after Trump’s social media post announcing the decision went live at 1105 GMT. This caused Brent to drop from $112 to $99 per barrel and WTI to drop from $99 to $86 per barrel.
Iran Strikes and Prediction Market Scrutiny
February 28, 2026: IRAN STRIKES THAT KILLED SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI Wagers made on sites like Polymarket and Kalshi prior to the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei increased scrutiny of prediction markets, with Democratic lawmakers advocating for a ban on wagers linked to military operations that might benefit those with insider knowledge.
Around $529 million was bet on a variety of contracts linked to the timing of U.S.-Israeli assaults on Iran, and an additional $150 million was placed on Khamenei’s departure as supreme leader, according to a Reuters analysis of Polymarket’s website at the time. Prediction markets allow users to bet on a wide range of real-world events through tradable yes-or-no contracts.
Bubblemaps, an analytics company, found six accounts that profited a total of $1.2 million on Polymarket wagers funded in the hours leading up to the raids on February 28. One particular Polymarket wager made just prior to the Iran strikes was highlighted by U.S. Representative Mike Levin of California.
š Prediction Market Trading Surge
- Event: High-value bets before geopolitical events
- Markets: Polymarket & Kalshi
- Volume: $529M+ on Iran-linked contracts
- Concern: Possible insider trading influence
- Impact: Increased regulatory scrutiny
Bond Market and Safe-Haven Movements
Separately, traders went in the opposite direction on February 27, bringing rates on the benchmark 10-year note below 4%, despite hotter-than-expected inflation data that would normally cause investors to sell long-dated Treasuries. According to analysts, a significant move into the safe-haven asset would typically result from a bad macro event or a strong belief that one was about to occur.
As oil prices increased that day, U.S. airline shares also declined, with the Dow Jones U.S. Airlines Index falling 5.13%.
Venezuela Political Developments and Market Bets
January 3, 2026 – U.S. CTURE OF FORMER VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT NICOLAS MADURO: After betting on Nicolas Maduro’s removal in January, an unidentified trader made almost $410,000.
Before U.S. special forces raided Maduro’s Caracas compound over the weekend, the trader’s Polymarket account accumulated stakes in contracts linked to Maduro’s departure on terms that suggested long odds. When word of the U.S. military operation surfaced on January 3, those bets, which were worth roughly $34,000 before his detention, increased in value.
Stock Market and Options Trading Activity
April 9, 2025: TARIFF halt: According to trading statistics, unidentified options traders wagered millions of dollars on a rebound in the U.S. stock market just minutes before Trump’s announcement of a tariff halt sparked a huge rise in April of last year. At 1:18 p.m. ET on April 9, Trump’s Truth Social post postponing tariffs caused the S&P 500 to rise 9.5%. Certain options contracts record an increase in trading activity prior to it, according to market statistics. At around 1 p.m. ET, 5,105 SPY call options were trading at an average price of $4.20.
These calls shot up to around $42 during the stock rally, converting $2.14 million into roughly $21.44 million on paper.
At around 1:10 p.m., further SPY calls that wagered on the ETF surpassing $509 were traded. ET; by the end of the day, their value had increased from $624,000 to around $10 million.
Reuters was unable to ascertain if a single trader bought or sold all of the calls or if multiple traders closed the position for a profit.
Government ethics rules prohibit federal employees from making money off of confidential information, according to White House spokesperson Kush Desai. He wrote in an email, “Any inference that Administration personnel are involved in such behavior without evidence is unfounded and irresponsible.”
ā ļø Insider Trading Concerns & Market Ethics
- Issue: Suspicious trading before major announcements
- Risk: Possible use of confidential information
- Markets Affected: Stocks, oil, bonds, prediction markets
- Regulation: Strict government ethics rules apply
- Debate: Transparency vs. financial advantage
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets allow users to bet on real-world outcomes using tradable contracts.
Why are these trading activities under scrutiny?
Because large bets made before major events raise concerns about possible insider information.
Can traders legally profit from such events?
Only if they do not use confidential or insider information, which is prohibited by law.
How do such trades affect markets?
They can cause sudden price movements, impacting stocks, commodities, and bonds.
What is the main concern of regulators?
Ensuring fairness, transparency, and preventing misuse of non-public information.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It does not provide financial, legal, or investment advice.
