As businesses look for methods to offset other expenses, such as rising import taxes, labor demand has progressively decreased.
As the unemployment rate remained at a nearly four-year high in September, US job creation most likely plodded along, prolonging a slow labor market phase.
The project of economists It increased employment by 50,000, according to the median of a Bloomberg study. That would be consistent with the three-month average. At 4.3%, the unemployment rate seems to be stable.
The government’s shutdown on Tuesday, the end of the fiscal year, might jeopardize the report’s publication on Friday if Congress cannot agree on a funding measure. The suspension of federal economic reporting would result from a shutdown.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics report will provide Federal Reserve officials with an update on whether businesses’ demand for workers is sufficient to prevent future increases in the unemployment rate, barring a shutdown.
Concerns over the labor market’s fragility led officials to drop interest rates this month for the first time in 2025, and investors are increasing their bets that the Fed will lower borrowing costs once again at a two-day meeting that ends on October 29.
Bloomberg Economics:
According to Bloomberg Economics, nonfarm payrolls will result in a net 54k job gain in September. Temperate weather and a favorable wealth impact from the summer stock market surge increased expenditure on discretionary services, which is probably why leisure and hospitality contributed to the improvement in net hiring.
—Economists Anna Wong, Chris G. Collins, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, and Estelle Ou. Click here for a complete analysis.
Speakers this coming week include Fed officials John Williams, Susan Collins, Austan Goolsbee, Philip Jefferson, and Lorie Logan.
As businesses look for methods to offset other expenses, such as rising import taxes, labor demand has progressively decreased. August employment opportunities were among the lowest since 2021, according to a separate government data forecast on Tuesday.
The Institute for Supply Management‘s September surveys of manufacturers and service providers will be among the additional data available next week.
Investors are keeping an eye out for any last-minute actions before the possible federal shutdown on October 1st, as well as the effects that a government shutdown would have. According to two sources with knowledge of the situation, President Donald Trump will meet with the top four congressional leaders at the White House on Monday.
Looking forward, the Bank of Canada will provide an overview of the discussions that resulted in this month’s quarter-point rate drop, the first since March. It may provide information on what might lead to a different move in October, which the markets presently consider to be a tie. Both Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers present.
Highlights will also include several talks by world central bankers, inflation statistics from Switzerland and the euro zone, and a potential rate decrease in India.
Asia
There are a number of significant central bank events this week. First, while officials evaluate the effects of last month’s quarter-point cut, the Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to maintain its benchmark rate on Tuesday.
The Fed‘s drop increased the US-India rate disparity, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to resume its easing cycle on Wednesday and reduce the repurchase rate to 5.25%.
The highlight of the three BOJ policy board members‘ presentations in Japan is Governor Kazuo Ueda on Friday. Two days after the publication of the central bank’s Tankan survey of business mood, he talks.
The indicator would indicate that, in spite of Trump’s tariff campaign, business mood at major manufacturers was positive in the third quarter, which would support a possible rate rise on October 30. In any case, Ueda will probably reveal his plans when he talks in Osaka, given his focus on better communications.
China will be focusing on whether the official manufacturing index remains below the boom-or-bust 50 mark for a sixth consecutive month when it receives two sets of September PMI data on Tuesday.
The next day presents PMI data from Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, South Korea, Malaysia, and Indonesia.
According to a study coming out on Wednesday, South Korea’s export growth stagnated in September as the effect of the levies became more severe and attempts to frontload shipments ahead of US penalties waned.
After a one-month telecom charge discount expires, South Korean consumer inflation is expected to slightly increase in September. However, the rate of price increases is likely to remain close to the Bank of Korea’s target, enabling policymakers to lower the base rate as early as their next meeting on October 23.
While trade data is expected from Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines, other countries that report CPI include Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Indonesia.
Africa, the Middle East, and Europe
Europe is going to have a busy week. Investors might learn more about the whole euro zone’s conclusion on Wednesday by examining the inflation statistics from Spain on Monday and France, Germany, and Italy on Tuesday. A result of 2.2%, the highest in five months, is what forecasters anticipate.
French industrial output on Friday and regional economic optimism on Monday could potentially attract notice.
Officials from the European Central Bank will be out in force, with almost half of the 26-member Governing Council expected to speak, sometimes more than once. Highlights include a discussion with President Christine Lagarde and other officials in Finland on Tuesday, and another with a large international audience in Amsterdam on Friday to commemorate Dutch Governor Klaas Knot‘s departure.
The next days will be quite busy in the UK. Investors are anticipating speeches from Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Tuesday, at a time when his tenure seems precarious, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves on Monday, before to her complex budget later this year, as the ruling Labour Party’s annual conference gets underway.
The publication of the quarterly national accounts on Tuesday and the Bank of England’s Decision Maker Panel the following day are examples of economic reports. There will also be a number of BOE policymakers speaking.
Highlights in Switzerland include adjustments to previous growth figures on Monday, a quarterly count of currency interventions on Tuesday, the purchasing managers index on Wednesday, and consumer prices on Thursday. The Swiss National Bank recently held rates on hold. According to economists, this month’s inflation rate increased to 0.3%, the highest level since March.
On Monday, Sweden’s Riksbank will make public the minutes of its September 23 decision to lower the repo rate while signaling that there would be no further cuts until 2028.
According to reports released on Friday, Turkey’s monthly price inflation accelerated in September due to what the central bank is likely to see as transient and seasonal causes. According to forecasts, the total inflation rate will decrease from 33% in August to 32.5%.
There are many planned financial decisions:
As it keeps an eye on how the conflict in Gaza is intensifying supply shortages and driving up prices, the Bank of Israel is probably going to leave its rate steady on Monday. Because of the uncertainties surrounding the longest and most costly war in Israel‘s history, the central bank has maintained its benchmark rate at 4.5% since January 2024.
Mozambique’s recession is likely to persuade officials to choose more easing on Monday as well. Since January 2024, the central bank has reduced its rate by 700 basis points, to 10.25%.
After inflation dropped to 12% in August—the lowest level in over three years—Egypt’s central bank may lower its benchmark rate, which is now at 22%, on Thursday.
Latin America
Retail sales, unemployment, copper output, and the central bank’s GDP-proxy report are among the seven distinct August data that Chile will release in the next week.
With market-friendly presidential contender Jose Antonio Kast topping polls ahead of the November election, data for July indicated strong domestic demand. Tariff drag and a mining mishap might affect the August numbers.
Brazil’s unemployment rate touched a record low of 5.6% in July, indicating that almost two-decade high rates have not done much to ease the pressure on a very tight labor market.
Inflation in Peru will be post-September after plunging to 1.11% in August, while Mexico also publishes August unemployment and formal job creation.
In Argentina, all eyes will be on negotiations with the United States to finalize the terms of a rescue plan for the second-largest economy in South America.
Before US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed preparations to intervene, Argentine assets had been in a spiral due to scandal and political unrest. Now, a lot hinges on President Javier Milei‘s performance in the midterm elections on October 26.
The central bank’s rate announcement on Tuesday, followed by the meeting minutes on Friday, will be the main event in Colombia.
Since a quarter-point decrease in April because of concerns about the glacial pace of disinflation, BanRep has held at 9.25% due to consecutive split votes. According to a central bank study, analysts do not anticipate any easing until 2026.