US Russia Nuclear Pact Expiry: Is the World Heading Toward a New Arms Race?

Thursday marks the expiration of the United States and Russia’s most recent nuclear weapons control deal. Fears of an unchecked nuclear arms race between the two superpowers are further raised by the limitation on the deployment of nuclear weapons.

End of the Last US-Russia Nuclear Arms Control Deal

The fact that both Russian President Putin and US President Donald Trump have been hesitant to extend the treaty amid tensions over the war in Ukraine has raised concerns. It effectively signals the end of over thirty years of US-Russian weapons control collaboration that contributed to the end of the Cold War.

Eighty-seven percent of the world’s nuclear weapons are held by the US and Russia. The 2010 renewal of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or “New START,” incorporated compliance and verification procedures in addition to limiting the nuclear arsenals of the US and Russia.

What the New START Treaty Regulated

It required information sharing on the movement of strategic nuclear forces between the two sides. The agreement also included short-term on-site missile inspections.

The 2010 signing of the “New START” by Russian President Dimitri Medvedev and former US President Barack Obama was significant because it placed Moscow on a level playing field with the US as a nuclear superpower. The agreement limited both sides to 1,550 nuclear warheads, and Joe Biden extended it for a further five years in 2021.

World Without Nuclear Limits

Now that it is about to expire, the horrifying possibility of a world without nuclear boundaries has arisen. In other words, the United States and Russia can now manufacture as many nuclear weapons as they choose.

Furthermore, neither leader has expressed a desire to extend the agreement. “If it expires, it expires” is what Trump said to the New York Times last month, sounding less worried. In actuality, the US President has been an outspoken opponent of international restrictions and gave the military the go-ahead to start nuclear weapons testing again last year.

However, Russia has stated that it is no longer constrained by nuclear warhead limits after Trump rejected an offer to extend the deal by one year. Putin, however, stated that Russia would “act in a measured manner and responsibly” during a call with China’s Xi Jinping on Wednesday, according to the AP.

When he signed the accord with Obama in 2010, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev spoke about the risks of letting it expire. “This immediately means a catastrophe and a nuclear war would commence… it should still concern everyone,” Medvedev said to Moscow reporters.

China, Europe, and the Stalemate

The US’s insistence on including China in any upcoming arms control agreement has been a major obstacle. China’s increasing nuclear arsenal has alarmed the US. It also worries India, which, despite a warming in relations, has border concerns with China.

However, China’s estimated 600 nuclear warheads are 12% fewer than those in the US stockpile. In the meantime, Russia has demanded that any future agreement include France and the UK, two of Europe’s nuclear-armed nations.

The United Nations, shaken by the event, has called on the United States and Russia to expeditiously extend the agreement. “For the first time in more than half a century, we face a world without any enforceable limits on nuclear arsenals of two superpowers,” said UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in a statement, indicating that the likelihood of a nuclear bomb being used was at its greatest level in decades. The Pope also emphasized that in order to prevent a new nuclear arms race, all parties should take “everything feasible.”

Global Fallout Beyond Washington and Moscow

You now realize how serious the situation is. However, the US-Russian agreement’s expiration affects more than just these countries. It affects the entire world.

The 1970 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), which is scheduled for review later this year, may be threatened by the immediate fallout. In actuality, the NPT’s basic base is weakened by the US-Russia agreement’s expiration.

Threat to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

Countries without nuclear weapons have committed to refraining from acquiring them under the NPT. The nuclear-armed nations agreed to scale back and eventually eliminate their arsenals in exchange. Non-nuclear nations can now accuse the US and Russia of breaching their agreement if they resume developing nuclear weapons. Only a worldwide nuclear weapons race will result from it.

In actuality, modernization of nuclear forces has already begun for both the US and Russia. In actuality, a new weapons race has already begun. Russia tested the nuclear-powered cruise missile Burevestnik and the nuclear-armed intercontinental super torpedo Poseidon last year.

Escalation and New Defense Strategies

Trump has stepped up plans to construct a “Golden Dome” to defend North America against long-range weaponry in light of this. In fact, he has stated that his desire to seize Greenland is motivated by this Russian threat.

An unidentified ballistic missile is fired against the US during a crisis in the 2025 Netflix movie “A House of Dynamite.” Even though the thriller was based on a fictitious scenario, nobody can predict what the future would bring given the unstable global order and ongoing wars worldwide.

What Lies Ahead

It is possible that the US and Russia may sign a new nuclear weapons agreement in the future. However, for the time being, the treaty’s expiration portends a more unstable and tense time.

Frequently asked questions

1. Describe the New START Treaty and its significance.

The final nuclear weapons control agreement between the United States and Russia was New START. It helped stop mistrust and escalation by limiting each side to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and implementing stringent verification procedures like inspections and data sharing.

2. Why was the pact not renewed once it expired?

Both parties were unable to agree on an extension because of growing tensions brought on by the war in Ukraine, a lack of political confidence, and differences over involving additional nuclear countries, including China, France, and the UK.

3. Does an instant nuclear war result from the treaty’s expiration?

No, it does not imply a nuclear conflict right now. However, it eliminates transparency and legal constraints, raising the possibility of long-term instability, armaments buildup, and poor judgment.

4. What impact does this have on nations like India?

The expiry undermines the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and international arms control standards. A fresh global arms competition might increase regional security threats for nations like India, particularly in light of tensions with China.

5. Is there already a new nuclear weapons race going on?

To a certain degree, yes. Even before the pact lapsed, the US and Russia were modernizing their nuclear weapons, including new systems such as nuclear-powered delivery vehicles and hypersonic missiles.

Conclusion

The New START treaty’s expiration represents a risky shift in international security. The two biggest nuclear powers in the world are using their arsenals without any legally enforceable restrictions or verification systems for the first time in decades. The lack of limits greatly increases the possibility of escalation, mistrust, and a resumed arms race, even though an immediate nuclear battle is unlikely.

More importantly, the breakdown of US-Russian arms control jeopardizes the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty’s legitimacy and may incite more countries to seek nuclear weapons. Unless diplomacy immediately reasserts itself, this scenario portends a more unpredictable and dangerous nuclear future in an already unstable world order.