According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India is unlikely to suffer any major economic or energy-related consequences from the unrest in Venezuela.
Impact of US military action on Venezuela on India economy
The think tank with its headquarters in India highlighted in a report that, in the 2000s and 2010s, corporations like ONGC Videsh have upstream operations in the Orinoco oil region, making India a major buyer of Venezuelan petroleum. However, after 2019, when US sanctions forced India to cut down on commercial engagement and stop oil imports in order to prevent the possibility of secondary penalties, bilateral trade and investment relations drastically declined.
India Venezuela crude oil trade after US sanctions
As a result, India’s trade exposure to Venezuela has significantly decreased and is still declining, according to GTRI. The evaluation takes place one day after US troops carried out a significant military operation in Venezuela, apprehending President Nicolas Maduro and his spouse and bringing them to the US for prosecution on accusations that included drug trafficking and narco-terrorism.
📊 India–Venezuela Trade Exposure
- Key Authority: GTRI analysis on Venezuela crisis and India trade
- Trade Trend: Sharp decline after US sanctions
- Oil Dependence: Minimal in recent years
- Risk Level: Low economic exposure for India
- Conclusion: Limited spillover impact on India
Will Venezuela crisis affect India energy security
Crude oil accounted for $255.3 million of India’s $364.5 million total imports from Venezuela in 2024–2025. This was a sharp 81.3% decline from $1.4 billion in oil imports in 2023–2024. Pharmaceuticals accounted for $41.4 million of India’s $95.3 million in exports to Venezuela, according to GTRI statistics.
The research tank reaffirmed that the recent events in Venezuela are unlikely to have a significant impact on India’s economy or energy security given the low amount of trade, the current sanctions system, and the distance between the two nations.
US Venezuela conflict implications for global oil markets
In light of the changing global order, GTRI warned that disputes over access to energy and raw commodities are probably going to become more intense. It recommended that India move cautiously, protecting its strategic autonomy, avoiding agreements that would jeopardize long-term interests or sovereignty, and guaranteeing access to vital energy and raw minerals free from outside geopolitical pressure.
Securing Venezuelan oil was one of the main goals of the US effort, according to GTRI. More than Saudi Arabia (approximately 16%), Russia (about 5–6%), or the United States (nearly 4%), Venezuela has around 18% of the world’s oil reserves. Just its reserves are more than those of the US and Russia put together.
🌍 Why Venezuela Matters Globally
- Oil Reserves: Around 18% of global total
- US Objective: Securing upstream crude access
- Strategic Risk: Supply control amid sanctions
- Market Impact: Potential volatility in global oil markets
- India’s Position: Strategically insulated
GTRI analysis on Venezuela crisis and India trade
The paper also noted that despite limited domestic crude supply and refining capacity, the US has signed trade agreements with countries including the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and the UK, promising them to buy American petroleum products and LNG.
According to GTRI, unfettered access to Venezuela’s oil is a major motivator behind Washington’s activities since the country, which has the biggest proven petroleum reserves in the world, is a strategically significant supply of upstream crude for the US.
Frequently asked questions
1. How would the US military involvement in Venezuela affect the economy of India?
No, the effect on India’s economy is anticipated to be minimal due to the country’s present modest trade and energy exposure to Venezuela, according to GTRI.
2. Does Venezuela continue to provide crude oil to India?
Just somewhat. Due to US sanctions and decreased involvement, Venezuela’s crude oil imports decreased by more than 81% year over year in 2024–2025.
3. Can the Venezuela crisis have an impact on India’s energy security?
Not likely. India no longer relies on Venezuelan oil for energy security since it has diversified its supplies of crude oil.
4. What is Venezuela strategically significant to the United States?
Access to Venezuela’s petroleum is a crucial geopolitical and energy goal for the United States as it has the greatest oil reserves in the world, accounting for around 18% of the world’s total.
5. Would lifting the sanctions on Venezuela help India?
Possibly, but only if the geopolitical environment permits it. India will still have to weigh the dangers associated with sanctions and strategic autonomy against its energy demands.
In conclusion
Due to limited trade exposure and current sanctions, the recent US military intervention in Venezuela is unlikely to have any significant effects on India’s economy or energy security. Nonetheless, the incident emphasizes how the geopolitics surrounding global energy are becoming more intense, which emphasizes the need for India to safeguard its strategic autonomy and diversify its access to vital resources.
Disclaimer
This article does not provide financial, investing, or policy advice; it is just meant to be informative. The opinions expressed are based on GTRI’s evaluations and publicly accessible data. Before making financial or investing choices, readers should speak with knowledgeable professionals.
